Middle East weakness drags global air demand, shows IATA data

The decline marked an improvement from August, however, with international passenger traffic returning to growth in most major markets.

International demand increased 0.4% compared with September 2025, while capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), rose 0.5%. Excluding the Middle East, international demand growth reached 1.7%.

Domestic markets performed less favorably, with demand falling 2.2% year over year and capacity declining 1.3%.

Across the global market, capacity contracted 0.2%, while the passenger load factor (PLF) slipped 0.3 percentage points to 83.2%.

IATA Senior Vice President for Sustainability and Chief Economist Marie Owens Thomsen said the September figures reflected continued weakness in the Middle East and North America.

“Air traffic demand fell 0.5% in September, reflecting weaknesses in the Middle East and North America. Nevertheless, this was an improvement from August, with a welcome return to growth in most international markets,” she said.

Owens Thomsen added that these patterns had persisted through much of 2026 and were likely to continue amid geopolitical uncertainty and volatile fuel prices.

Global scheduled seat capacity is expected to remain above 2025 levels in October and November, although growth rates remain weak and uneven across regions, she added.

Middle East records steepest decline
Middle Eastern airlines experienced the sharpest contraction among the world’s regions, with total passenger demand falling 8% year over year. Capacity decreased 3.8%, pushing the load factor down 3.6 percentage points to 78.2%.

North America also remained in negative territory, with demand declining 1.6% and capacity falling 1.3%.

By contrast, Africa recorded 5% demand growth, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean at 4.3%. Asia-Pacific and European markets posted more modest increases of 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively.

International markets show signs of recovery
Looking specifically at international traffic, African and Latin American airlines recorded the strongest growth.

African carriers reported an 8% increase in international demand, although capacity expanded faster, at 8.8%. Their load factor consequently declined 0.6 percentage points to 74.8%.

Latin American airlines registered 8.2% demand growth, with capacity increasing 7.6%. Their load factor improved 0.5 percentage points to 83.9%.

European carriers posted 1.8% international demand growth, while Asia-Pacific airlines recorded a 0.7% increase.

North American international demand remained flat, although capacity fell 1.9%, lifting the load factor 1.6 percentage points to 84.9%.

Middle Eastern carriers continued to face significant challenges, with international demand down 7.5% and capacity declining 3.3%. The Middle East-Asia corridor contracted 8.8%, compared with a 7.9% decline in August.